Monday, August 07, 2006
Tuesday: Counter-intelligence; immigration reform and
FEMA's David Paulison and the National Hurricane Center's Max Mayfield will be at NOAA's unveiling of its latest hurricane predictions.
New counter-intelligence chief
The Director National of Intelligence has appointed a replacement for Michelle Van Cleave as the national counter-intelligence executive. He is Joel F. Brenner, formerly the inspector general for the National Security Agency.
Bill Gertz over at the Washington Times wrote about this vacancy and about contenders for the post.
Your humble correspondent hopes to make some calls about this appointment shortly.
Immigration reform and border security
Frank Davis is the latest to take the temperature of the immigration reform bill and pronounce it dead.
As your humble correspondent explained last week, he refrains from making public pronouncements of this kind about legislation, because of his (at the time) private and (now) clearly mistaken conviction during the fall of 2004 that the intelligence reform bill was similarly doomed.
The National Journal has a typically comprehensive look (subscription only, alas) at the chances for progress, including a useful historical recap of all the times triggers have and haven't worked as legislative peace formulas.
It is election season, and that means, as the Natty Jo piece suggests, a lot of people on Capitol Hill are wondering whether you get more votes by passing some kind of compromise immigration reform package, or by hanging tough and using the issue to bash the Democrats.
The problem is, that's not the way the institutional structures make the political calculation work.
Let's again employ the hypothetical point of view of a horrid cynic who had somehow wormed his way into the White House. To pass legislation through the Senate before the election, you basically have to make it a potential hostage to Democrat guerilla tactics -- and your point men are Judiciary Committee Chairman Sen. Arlen Specter, R-Penn., and Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn. Hmmmmm.
The intelligence reform bill couldn't pass before the election in 2004 because neither side wanted to give the other the chance to make it, or even just claim it as, a win.
In the end, intelligence reform turned out to be a marginal issue in the election, but it was something the White House wanted to happen, and when the president returned from the campaign, flush with electoral victory, there was a great sense of momentum, of needing to get through the final lap.
Immigration reform is likely to be a major issue in this campaign and the political calculation about it is bound to change even before the election as everyone pores over their polling data. As to what might happen after the election -- that is basically anyone's guess at this stage.
You humble correspondent remembers always the caution of the great Yogi Berra. "It is dangerous to make predictions, especially about the future."
Bubbling under
My friend and former colleague, Eli Lake reports for the New York Sun that the Iraqi government is holding a group of army officers it suspects of having been involved with a coup plot last month.
There have been a lot of stories about this alleged plot circulating, but Eli's seems to be the first one to raise -- albeit implicitly -- the question of who these alleged plotters are and in whose custody they might be and what is being done to them.
If they were indeed arrested, as Eli reports, with the help of U.S. forces, the United States might be said to have a moral, if not legal, responsibility for their well-being.
Lies, damn lies and wage statistics
Now here's a thing the Homeland Hack was shocked to learn.
Average compensation for federal employees is double that of private sector workers.
In 2005, the average pay of a full-time U.S. government employee was $106,579, including benefits. The much larger number of workers employed by the private sector averaged $53,289 each with benefits included, according to Govexec.com.
Labor unions say that's because government outsourcing tends to reduce the number of blue collar workers -- security guards, janitors, junior administrative staff -- who are directly on the federal payroll, leaving the more highly qualified and compensated professionals like lawyers and accountants to raise the average.
I think the persistence of low-wage, no-benefit jobs in the private sector has something to do with it, too. Interestingly, the federal advantage is much lower if you don't count benefits, because then the private sector figure is less weighed down by its long tail of no benefit jobs at the bottom.
New counter-intelligence chief
The Director National of Intelligence has appointed a replacement for Michelle Van Cleave as the national counter-intelligence executive. He is Joel F. Brenner, formerly the inspector general for the National Security Agency.
Bill Gertz over at the Washington Times wrote about this vacancy and about contenders for the post.
Your humble correspondent hopes to make some calls about this appointment shortly.
Immigration reform and border security
Frank Davis is the latest to take the temperature of the immigration reform bill and pronounce it dead.
As your humble correspondent explained last week, he refrains from making public pronouncements of this kind about legislation, because of his (at the time) private and (now) clearly mistaken conviction during the fall of 2004 that the intelligence reform bill was similarly doomed.
The National Journal has a typically comprehensive look (subscription only, alas) at the chances for progress, including a useful historical recap of all the times triggers have and haven't worked as legislative peace formulas.
It is election season, and that means, as the Natty Jo piece suggests, a lot of people on Capitol Hill are wondering whether you get more votes by passing some kind of compromise immigration reform package, or by hanging tough and using the issue to bash the Democrats.
The problem is, that's not the way the institutional structures make the political calculation work.
Let's again employ the hypothetical point of view of a horrid cynic who had somehow wormed his way into the White House. To pass legislation through the Senate before the election, you basically have to make it a potential hostage to Democrat guerilla tactics -- and your point men are Judiciary Committee Chairman Sen. Arlen Specter, R-Penn., and Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn. Hmmmmm.
The intelligence reform bill couldn't pass before the election in 2004 because neither side wanted to give the other the chance to make it, or even just claim it as, a win.
In the end, intelligence reform turned out to be a marginal issue in the election, but it was something the White House wanted to happen, and when the president returned from the campaign, flush with electoral victory, there was a great sense of momentum, of needing to get through the final lap.
Immigration reform is likely to be a major issue in this campaign and the political calculation about it is bound to change even before the election as everyone pores over their polling data. As to what might happen after the election -- that is basically anyone's guess at this stage.
You humble correspondent remembers always the caution of the great Yogi Berra. "It is dangerous to make predictions, especially about the future."
Bubbling under
My friend and former colleague, Eli Lake reports for the New York Sun that the Iraqi government is holding a group of army officers it suspects of having been involved with a coup plot last month.
There have been a lot of stories about this alleged plot circulating, but Eli's seems to be the first one to raise -- albeit implicitly -- the question of who these alleged plotters are and in whose custody they might be and what is being done to them.
If they were indeed arrested, as Eli reports, with the help of U.S. forces, the United States might be said to have a moral, if not legal, responsibility for their well-being.
Lies, damn lies and wage statistics
Now here's a thing the Homeland Hack was shocked to learn.
Average compensation for federal employees is double that of private sector workers.
In 2005, the average pay of a full-time U.S. government employee was $106,579, including benefits. The much larger number of workers employed by the private sector averaged $53,289 each with benefits included, according to Govexec.com.
Labor unions say that's because government outsourcing tends to reduce the number of blue collar workers -- security guards, janitors, junior administrative staff -- who are directly on the federal payroll, leaving the more highly qualified and compensated professionals like lawyers and accountants to raise the average.
I think the persistence of low-wage, no-benefit jobs in the private sector has something to do with it, too. Interestingly, the federal advantage is much lower if you don't count benefits, because then the private sector figure is less weighed down by its long tail of no benefit jobs at the bottom.
